- On October 4, 2016
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Debate Night Message: The Markets Are Afraid of Donald Trump
Economic View | By Justin Wolfers
The New York Times
These conclusions arise from close analysis of financial markets during Monday’s presidential debate, which provides a fascinating case study of the complex interconnections between American politics and economics.
During the debate, the overnight futures markets rallied, raising the value of broad stock market gauges like the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index by two-thirds to three-quarters of a percentage point. This was a consequential move, and because it was driven by the reduced chance of a Trump presidency, it reveals that the market believes that stocks would be worth more if he were to lose the election. Four pieces of evidence support this interpretation.